Exxon (oil market), Climate Change, Tesla

[ggies]

There are ebbs and flows of important articles, so I have to post another one. Amory Lovins, the guy who wrote [Only registered users can see links.] , which got me into this whole subject right around the time I found out about Tesla (2011), has written a review of his projections of the last 40 years.

[Only registered users can see links.]

It has a ton of great graphs to show what he proposed and what has actually happened.

So many quotes, but here are a few:

At that teachable moment, my Foreign Affairs article “Energy Strategy: The Road Not Taken?” reframed the energy problem and added an alternative vision of U.S. energy strategy

Climate understanding isn’t new. The 1976 Foreign Affairs article says of the hard path: “The commitment to a long-term coal economy many times the scale of today’s makes the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration early in the next century virtually unavoidable, with the prospect then or soon thereafter of substantial and perhaps irreversible changes in global climate. Only the exact date of such changes is in question.” Are we there yet? Cue the Clean Power Plan and the Paris Agreement.

[Tambourine Man]

Global warming nuts are telling people not to have children because of their carbon foot print.

I'm all for clean air and water, but I can't get behind this political agenda

[ggies]

Originally Posted by Tambourine Man Global warming nuts are telling people not to have children because of their carbon foot print. I'm all for clean air and water, but I can't get behind this political agenda

not me.

It's not a political issue, it's a physics one. It's a world wide problem, not a USA problem. Politics only comes into play because of special interest groups and greed. If you haven't read any of the articles I've posted, please do.

[ggies]

[Only registered users can see links.]

[Tambourine Man]

Originally Posted by ggies not me. It's not a political issue, it's a physics one. It's a world wide problem, not a USA problem. Politics only comes into play because of special interest groups and greed. If you haven't read any of the articles I've posted, please do.

Big business is just gonna use "climate change" to regulate out their competition.

Just look at our food industry, an industry that's regulated out the ass. Factory farms are given a pass, but small family farms are REGULARLY raided by armed federal agents from the USDA and FDA.

Politicians will use climate change as a reason for our economic decline. "Oh sorry USA, you can't be rich anymore, you were only rich because you used to rape the environment"

It goes on and on...

[ggies]

Originally Posted by Tambourine Man Big business is just gonna use "climate change" to regulate out their competition. Just look at our food industry, an industry that's regulated out the ass. Factory farms are given a pass, but small family farms are REGULARLY raided by armed federal agents from the USDA and FDA. Politicians will use climate change as a reason for our economic decline. "Oh sorry USA, you can't be rich anymore, you were only rich because you used to rape the environment" It goes on and on...

no, it doesn't go on and on. Using climate change to create a better world will not tank our economy....You have been reading all the articles I've posted, right?

Renewable energy is cheaper right now in some states than having coal back-up plants and it's only getting cheaper. Driving EVs is about to be cheaper than driving an ICE (you know, the thing that runs on oil....)

Our economy is already starting to pull away from an oil based one. Our GDP was up slightly while adding more renewable than ever.

Oh, and you want to talk about regulation? How about the oil companies saying how much we pay for gas? This started from the 1900s and goes all the way to OPEC now. You want to not be controlled by "Big Business", buy an EV like me.

With an EV, you are not tied to how much gas costs anymore. You know what your price will always be - it's your electricity cost per kWh. Now let's go one step further, don't want to be tied to the "BIG BUSINESS" of utilities telling you what your price will be in your area? Get solar.

So now you have solar and an EV, telling the "Big Business" to go fuck itself while helping the planet.

Oh, one more thing - IF we don't do something as a human race, not just the USA but the whole planet, then future generations will have a hard time living here.

I usually don't like to add this type of stuff in here and try to keep it based on articles of data, but you need to understand you are coming at it from the wrong angle.

Bonus round: Here is some great political gaming:

Media coverage since 2006 to now showing politicians flip-flopping over climate change.

[ggies]

See, not just a USA problem:

[Only registered users can see links.]

Jo Bertram, regional general manager of Uber in the UK, said: “People already associate Uber with hybrid cars, but we now want to go a big step further with fully electric cars on the road from today. We are determined to use technology to help tackle the challenge of air pollution in London and across the UK. Our car-sharing service has already saved 1.2 million miles and 211 metric tonnes of CO2. With electric vehicles – and more people sharing their journey and leaving their own cars at home – there’s even more we can do.”

[ggies]

[Only registered users can see links.]

With costs as they stand today, there would still be a considerable savings in the scenarios modeled by NREL, mostly from fuel costs, at a savings of $30 billion on the high end. By comparison, an NREL study published in 2013 on high renewable penetration in the Western Interconnection found avoided fuel cost savings of about $7 billion.

[Tambourine Man]

What do you mean renewable is cheaper than coal plants? If it was cheaper for a utility company to produce energy from renewable sources, then they'd be doing it already. And btw, are you including nuclear as a renewable source?

[Jayes]

Originally Posted by Tambourine Man What do you mean renewable is cheaper than coal plants? If it was cheaper for a utility company to produce energy from renewable sources, then they'd be doing it already. And btw, are you including nuclear as a renewable source?

.....they are and the whole transition doesn't happen over night.

[Tambourine Man]

Originally Posted by Jayes .....they are and the whole transition doesn't happen over night.

If that's true, then why are these Universities and studies wasting millions to tell businesses it's in their own best interest. Doesn't make sense.

It reminds me of the minimum wage argument. Economists tell businesses how it's in their own best interest to have a higher minimum wage. If that was true, businesses would already be doing it!

[ggies]

Originally Posted by Tambourine Man What do you mean renewable is cheaper than coal plants? If it was cheaper for a utility company to produce energy from renewable sources, then they'd be doing it already. And btw, are you including nuclear as a renewable source?

I mean just that...they are cheaper. The real obvious reason is the fuel cost. Once wind or solar is installed, that's it. But with coal/natural gas, you have the fuel cost to continually keep up with. And no nuclear. What I focus on and what the articles I read are about is wind, solar, battery storage and EVs. Sometimes I see geothermal thrown in there....

And yes, utilities have started the switch for a few years now. Like Jayes said, it's going to take awhile. But if you had gone through this thread and read the links you would understand this.

*After four years of almost daily research, this is my way of seeing the best way it should work*

The basic arc is that utilities will provide a small amount of help with the overall grid, but basically it's some utility solar and then rooftop solar +battery storage and software controlling the grid from here on out.

************

I posted these in June/July:

Here is a real-world example to show you it's cheaper:

[Only registered users can see links.]



[Only registered users can see links.]

[Only registered users can see links.]

[Tambourine Man]

In your research, why are most solar panels NOT being manufactured in the USA?

[ggies]

Originally Posted by Tambourine Man In your research, why are most solar panels NOT being manufactured in the USA?

I think this is the wrong angle to look at again. Making solar panels is not just a USA thing. China is the leader because of how easy it is for them to make products cheap production wise. There was a glut of cheap solar panels on the market a few years ago. But honestly, this nation is an oil nation. Politicians are bought by the oil company.

But you're in luck!

SolarCity (the #1 solar installer in the US and is about to merge with Tesla) is building it's own Gigafactory in NY to manufacturer USA panels. These will be slightly more efficient than others in the market right now.

[Only registered users can see links.]

Company officials recently reported that the Gigafactory is nearly 90 percent complete and that it hopes to start installing equipment this summer. “Manufacturing is scheduled to begin in 2017,” Rive says.

[ggies]

oops.....

[Only registered users can see links.]

...over the first six months of 2016, EIA weekly estimates underestimated total crude oil, petroleum, and biofuel exports by an average of 16%, compared with final data published in the PSM." This underestimation of exports "led to the overestimation of total consumption" by a similar amount.

[Caveat Emperor]

Not to derail the revolution -- but Musk just had another rocket blow up. That's 2 in the last 18 months. I'd be a little worried about investor confidence in his companies.

[ggies]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor Not to derail the revolution -- but Musk just had another rocket blow up. That's 2 in the last 18 months. I'd be a little worried about investor confidence in his companies.

ah yes. Actually, only one in the air. Today's happened when filling up the propellant on the ground.

He is disrupting two different sectors at the same time...I would think there would be some leeway around anomalies when pushing boundaries. SpaceX is the first private company to send something to the ISS and do it at a fraction of the cost....pretty high remarks there...

I'm not worried. SpaceX is not public and will never be. Need to get to Mars without the dumbass market saying what's best for the company.

Tesla - continuing to push the car industry forward. Just announced a new battery (100 kWh) that in Ludicrous mode goes from 0-60 in 2.5 seconds.....AND has a cheaper model coming out next year that over 373,000 people have signed up for without even test driving the thing.

[ggies]

I'm gathering up a lot of my saved links in preparation to talk to my in-laws about this subject, as they are very skeptical of all of this, and found this gem. I don't think I ever posted this one....it's more on the economics of autonomous EVs. It pairs well with that other article I posted recently about society moving in this direction.

[Only registered users can see links.]

[Tambourine Man]

Originally Posted by ggies ah yes. Actually, only one in the air. Today's happened when filling up the propellant on the ground. He is disrupting two different sectors at the same time...I would think there would be some leeway around anomalies when pushing boundaries. SpaceX is the first private company to send something to the ISS and do it at a fraction of the cost....pretty high remarks there... I'm not worried. SpaceX is not public and will never be. Need to get to Mars without the dumbass market saying what's best for the company. Tesla - continuing to push the car industry forward. Just announced a new battery (100 kWh) that in Ludicrous mode goes from 0-60 in 2.5 seconds.....AND has a cheaper model coming out next year that over 373,000 people have signed up for without even test driving the thing.

The "market" would never finance a company to go to space. The airlines are always going bankrupt, imagine a space travel company. If they can develop some marketable technology along the way, maybe they could get some funding.

[ggies]

What great timing for an article like this. It's why I created this thread in the first place, to get more people to see the transition and understand what's going on because 90% of media is FUD or gets the facts wrong.

[Only registered users can see links.]