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Old 02-23-2018, 03:54 PM   #1
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Objectively Ranking DMB's Tours

I just published this on the [Only registered users can see links.] and thought it would lead to some good discussion on here.

TLDR version: there's no truly objective way to compare setlist variety from one tour to another.

Full version for the click-averse:
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One of the most important characteristics the Almanac attempts to maintain is objectivity. Something that comes up often in discussion about Dave Matthews Band is ranking things: which songs are best, which shows are best, which tours are best, etc. Clearly, the concept of "best" is an inherently subjective one, but are there any objective ways of ranking tours? From an "on-paper" perspective, there are two variables that tend to come up when people discuss which tours are better than others: song selection and setlist variation. Quality of song selection is obviously not possible to quantify objectively, but it does seem possible to do so with setlist variation. A common observation about the band's setlist variation is that they don't vary their setlists as much as they used to. Is that true? Let's see if we can find out.

Different Songs Played
The easiest way to rank tours against one another is to look at how many different songs were played over the course of each.

Here are the rankings (with total different songs played in parentheses):
1 Summer 2015 (116)
2 Summer 2013 (110)
3 Summer 2014 (107)
4 Summer 2012 (99)
5 Summer 2010 (96)
6 Summer 2016 (88)
T-7 Summer 2008 (78)
T-7 International Summer 2009 (78)
T-9 Summer 2006 (72)
T-9 International Fall 2015 (72)
11 Summer 2007 (71)
12 Summer 2003 (68)
T-13 Spring/Summer 2001 (61)
T-13 Summer 2005 (61)
15 Spring 2002 (57)
T-16 Summer 2000 (56)
T-16 Summer 2002 (56)
T-16 Summer 2004 (56)
T-19 Fall 1998 (50)
T-19 Summer 1999 (50)
21 Summer 1998 (44)
22 Fall 1996 (42)
23 Summer 1995 (41)
24 Spring 1998 (39)
25 Fall 1994 (37)
T-26 Spring 1994 (34)
T-26 Winter 1995 (34)
T-26 Spring 1995 (34)
29 Summer 1997 (33)
30 Winter 1994 (31)

There are some problems with this way of comparing tours, namely that the band's song catalog has grown greatly in the 27 years they have been playing together, so it is not really fair to compare a 1994 tour to a 2015 tour. Another problem is that the band often plays some songs only one or two times on a tour but plays others far more often; this means that a higher number of songs does not necessarily indicate greater setlist variety.

Percentage of Catalog Played
To overcome the size-of-catalog problem, let's rank the tours by the percentage of the then-current catalog that was played on the tour. Here we are excluding defunct songs once their evolved versions debuted, and we're excluding one-off covers and the like, but otherwise, we're including nearly all songs that had been played up through the end of each tour.

Here are the same tours ranked by total percentage of catalog played (with total played/catalog size and percentage in parentheses):
1 Summer 1995 (41/55; 74.5%)
2 Fall 1994 (37/50; 74.0%)
3 Spring 1994 (34/47; 72.3%)
4 Summer 2000 (56/78; 71.8%)
5 Fall 1998 (50/70; 71.4%)
6 Summer 2003 (68/97; 70.1%)
7 Summer 1999 (50/73; 68.5%)
8 Winter 1995 (34/50; 68.0%)
9 Fall 1996 (42/62; 67.7%)
10 Spring/Summer 2001 (61/92; 66.3%)
11 Winter 1994 (31/47; 66.0%)
12 Spring 1995 (34/53; 64.2%)
13 Summer 1998 (44/69; 63.8%)
14 Summer 2015 (116/191; 60.7%)
15 Summer 2013 (110/185; 59.5%)
16 Spring 2002 (57/96; 59.4%)
17 Summer 2010 (96/164; 58.5%)
18 Summer 2002 (56/97; 57.7%)
19 Summer 2006 (72/125; 57.6%)
20 Summer 2014 (107/187; 57.2%)
21 Spring 1998 (39/69; 56.5%)
22 Summer 2012 (99/181; 54.7%)
23 Summer 2004 (56/103; 54.4%)
24 Summer 2008 (78/144; 54.2%)
25 Summer 2007 (71/135; 52.6%)
26 Summer 1997 (33/63; 52.4%)
27 Summer 2005 (61/118; 51.7%)
28 International Summer 2009 (78/161; 48.4%)
29 Summer 2016 (88/195; 45.1%)
30 International Fall 2015 (72/191; 37.7%)

Looking at the tours this way makes it slightly more apples-to-apples when comparing an early tour to a more recent one, but it still doesn't account for the band's tendency to play certain songs far more often than others, thus causing the number-of-songs-played figure to be a bit misleading. Furthermore, it creates a new problem: the band played about 75% of its catalog on the Summer 1995 tour, which required them to play 41 different songs; by comparison, they would have had to have played 142 different songs in 2015 in order to play the same percentage of their catalog. Finally, it's a bit subjective to determine which songs should count as being "in the catalog" at the time: do songs from Some Devil count, even if they've never been played at a DMB show? Does Captain count from 1996 onward, or only from 2000, 2001, or 2002? It's certainly a judgment call.

Average Rarity
Since adjusting for one skewed variable creates another skewed variable, and vice-versa, let's take a different approach. Our website assigns each show a rarity index number, which represents how often the average song in that show's setlist was played on the tour. For example, if a show has a 2.000 rarity, that means that the average song in that show's setlist was played once every 2.000 shows on that tour. Averaging all of the rarity index numbers for a given tour provides a rarity value for the entire tour.

Here's what the rankings look like this way (with average rarity in parentheses):
1 Summer 2013 (3.341)
2 Summer 2015 (3.198)
3 Summer 2012 (3.048)
4 Summer 2014 (2.978)
5 Summer 2016 (2.783)
6 Summer 2003 (2.665)
7 Summer 2010 (2.634)
8 Summer 2006 (2.581)
9 Summer 2008 (2.452)
10 International Fall 2015 (2.253)
11 Summer 2007 (2.234)
12 Summer 2002 (2.213)
13 Summer 2005 (2.204)
14 Summer 2000 (2.190)
15 Summer 1999 (2.147)
16 Spring 2002 (2.101)
17 International Summer 2009 (2.066)
18 Spring/Summer 2001 (2.047)
19 Summer 2004 (1.943)
20 Fall 1998 (1.805)
21 Spring 1994 (1.764)
22 Fall 1994 (1.759)
23 Winter 1995 (1.746)
24 Summer 1998 (1.657)
25 Spring 1995 (1.623)
26 Summer 1995 (1.540)
27 Winter 1994 (1.527)
28 Spring 1998 (1.476)
29 Fall 1996 (1.470)
30 Summer 1997 (1.321)

This is a fairly objective comparison of setlist variety; however, it still is skewed in favor of more recent tours due to the increasing size of the band's catalog over time. It would not have been feasible for the band's setlists to have been as varied in the early days as they are today, so we again have an apples-to-oranges comparison.

Average Rarity vs. Maximum Average Rarity
It is possible to calculate a maximum average rarity value for each tour, based on the total number of songs available in the band's catalog at the time and the average number of songs played at each show. In simpler terms, the maximum average rarity is what the average rarity index for the tour would be if the band played 100% different setlists every night of the tour, to the greatest extent possible given the size of their catalog at the time. Because this value has increased as the band's catalog has grown, comparing tours by the difference between the maximum average rarity and the actual average rarity accounts for that skew.

Here are the rankings using this way of reckoning (with the maximum, actual, and difference in parentheses):
1 Fall 1994 (3.372 – 1.759 = 1.613)
2 Winter 1994 (3.408 – 1.527 = 1.881)
3 Summer 1995 (3.526 – 1.540 = 1.986)
4 Fall 1996 (3.758 – 1.470 = 2.287)
5 Winter 1995 (4.197 – 1.746 = 2.451)
6 Spring 1994 (4.283 – 1.764 = 2.519)
7 Summer 2000 (4.750 – 2.190 = 2.560)
8 Summer 1997 (3.930 – 1.321 = 2.610)
9 Spring 1995 (4.327 – 1.623 = 2.703)
10 Summer 1999 (4.889 – 2.147 = 2.743)
11 Spring/Summer 2001 (4.837 – 2.047 = 2.790)
12 Summer 1998 (4.513 – 1.657 = 2.855)
13 Spring 1998 (4.351 – 1.476 = 2.874)
14 Summer 2003 (5.736 – 2.665 = 3.071)
15 Fall 1998 (4.979 – 1.805 = 3.174)
16 Summer 2002 (5.581 – 2.213 = 3.368)
17 Spring 2002 (5.479 – 2.101 = 3.378)
18 Summer 2004 (5.764 – 1.943 = 3.820)
19 Summer 2006 (7.078 – 2.581 = 4.497)
20 Summer 2005 (6.917 – 2.204 = 4.712)
21 Summer 2014 (7.924 – 2.978 = 4.946)
22 Summer 2015 (8.222 – 3.198 = 5.024)
23 Summer 2007 (7.262 – 2.234 = 5.028)
24 Summer 2008 (7.796 – 2.452 = 5.344)
25 Summer 2010 (8.506 – 2.634 = 5.872)
26 Summer 2013 (9.232 – 3.341 = 5.890)
27 Summer 2012 (9.412 – 3.048 = 6.364)
28 International Summer 2009 (8.779 – 2.066 = 6.712)
29 Summer 2016 (10.114 – 2.783 = 7.331)
30 International Fall 2015 (10.364 – 2.253 = 8.111)

The main problem here is that DMB has never and probably will never play its entire catalog on a single tour, and the likelihood of that happening decreases as time goes on and the catalog grows. Furthermore, they have never and probably will never play all of their songs as infrequently as would be required for a tour's average rarity to approach its maximum average rarity—to do that, they'd essentially have to fail to repeat a single song all tour until they had played every song in their repertoire.

Conclusion
So what's the takeaway here? Are the band's recent setlists as varied as they were in the early days? Yes and no. Depending on which of the above methods you use, you'll believe that the tours with the most varied setlists are either from 1994, 1995, 2013, or 2015. Method #3 (Average Rarity) seems to be the most objective comparison, and it shows that the band's more recent tours have featured far more varied setlists than did their early tours; however, as mentioned above, this objectivity does not necessarily mean it's a fair comparison. There is no single best way to objectively compare one DMB tour to another. Each of the methods described above has its flaws. Moreover, these statistics aren't what truly matter for most people—what matters is the actual performance, and that would be nearly impossible to quantify.

Stray Observations
Please note that the data above features only tours with 20 or more shows whose setlists are known. Short tours over- or underinflate certain statistics, so we have chosen to ignore those tours. Additionally, some of the data above has been adjusted to account for unknown setlists.

Even though we omitted the 25 tours with fewer than 20 shows, some of the data for those tours is still interesting. When including those tours, the following end up first and last:
Different Songs Played: 1 Summer 2015 (116); 55 Europe 1995 Summer (18)
Percentage of Catalog Played: 1 Summer 1995 (74.5%); 55 Australia Spring 2014 (23.1%)
Average Rarity: 1 Summer 2011 (3.444); 55 New Years Run 1995 (1.135)
Average Rarity vs. Maximum Average Rarity: 1 HORDE 1994 (1.220); 55 International Fall 2015 (8.111)

We often see people misinterpreting our site's rarity index numbers and rankings as a qualitative assessment of the show. Just because a show has the highest rarity index number for its tour does not necessarily mean it was the best show of the tour. That's for you to decide. It just means that the songs at that show weren't played as often as the songs at other shows.

The most recent major tour whose average rarity index value is less than 2 is Summer 2004 (1.943), when Crazy Easy, Hello Again, Joyride, and Sugar Will were all played at nearly every show. Summer 1997 has one of the lowest average rarity index values of all time (1.321), due mostly to nearly every encore being identical. Many people consider these two tours among the best the band has done, which is good evidence that rarity (and, by extension, variety) isn't everything.

The single rarest show of all time is 9.1.13, with a rarity index of 5.025. Remember, though, that a show's rarity index number is only good for comparing a show to others from the same tour. We made a big deal about the rarity index value for 9.8.02 back when that show was the rarest of all time; its score is a meager 3.825!

Last edited by dancetheham; 02-23-2018 at 07:06 PM.
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Old 02-23-2018, 03:56 PM   #2
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This is awesome.
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Old 02-23-2018, 04:00 PM   #3
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This is awesome.
Agreed. I donít have time to read the whole thing right now, but just the quick scan I was able to do was fascinating.
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Old 02-23-2018, 04:11 PM   #4
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very cool!

First thing I noticed is depressing. The best tours IMO are the ones with fewest different songs played
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Old 02-23-2018, 04:35 PM   #5
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This is really great. Thanks for putting all this together!

I find the Average Rarity vs. Maximum Average Rarity really interesting.
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Old 02-23-2018, 06:51 PM   #6
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Nicely done. And yeah, rarity isn’t everything. Gotta have a solid base.
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Old 02-23-2018, 08:12 PM   #7
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I'm thinking about revising the last section to show actual rarity as a percentage of maximum rarity instead of the difference. I think that would be a better indicator.
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Old 02-23-2018, 08:36 PM   #8
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I think it can be done. I'm not incredibly versed in statistics, so I'm going to use baseball analogies for lack of the statistical terms. But if you treat DMB as a baseball season and treat each tour like a stadium, you can use a function like Park Factors to equalize for things like the catalog size at the time.

You should also set a floor and exclude songs played like, one time ever.

I would also incorporate recency of being played within a tour. Songs played four times over five shows should count less than a song played every other week throughout the tour.

What would it look like to calculate: (the number of plays a song has) / (the number of shows since its live debut or album release, whichever came first).
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Old 02-23-2018, 08:51 PM   #9
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Great writeup, Dan!

I think it's impossible to ever determine a "best" tour because there are so many intangibles involved. At first, when I saw the Percentage of Catalog Played I thought i would agree with a lot.

Turns out, other than Summer 1999, Summer 2000, Summer 2001, and Summer 2003 the top 10 really doesn't have too many tours I think I would really enjoy. I know 1994-1997 is "the beginning" for lots of you, so I understand the fondness for those tours. It's the same reason I have such great fondness for the "millenium era" tours.

I enjoyed many DMB songs prior to 1999 when I started high school, but really until I heard songs like Grey Street, Bartender, etc. did I develop the level of interest I have now.

Going back to "intangibles", I think Summer 2004 and Summer 2006 were the greatest memories I have, so if someone asked me for a favorite year I would probably say those. Summer 2004 because it was the first year I started to travel for shows, and Summer 2006 because it was my first year taping. You could never account for those types of things when ranking this, but to me that is the fun in all of this!

It is great to hear everyone's opinions and their reasons for picking certain years. If there is one thing I can safely say about seeing this band nearly 100 times now it is that there has never been a year without some kind of moment that totally blew me away.
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Old 02-23-2018, 09:00 PM   #10
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Another factor to equalize for would be Length of tour. Playing 120 songs over 60 shows compared to 100 songs over forty shows should give the latter a higher rarity score.
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Old 02-23-2018, 09:20 PM   #11
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Great writeup, Dan!

I think it's impossible to ever determine a "best" tour because there are so many intangibles involved. At first, when I saw the Percentage of Catalog Played I thought i would agree with a lot.

Turns out, other than Summer 1999, Summer 2000, Summer 2001, and Summer 2003 the top 10 really doesn't have too many tours I think I would really enjoy. I know 1994-1997 is "the beginning" for lots of you, so I understand the fondness for those tours. It's the same reason I have such great fondness for the "millenium era" tours.

I enjoyed many DMB songs prior to 1999 when I started high school, but really until I heard songs like Grey Street, Bartender, etc. did I develop the level of interest I have now.

Going back to "intangibles", I think Summer 2004 and Summer 2006 were the greatest memories I have, so if someone asked me for a favorite year I would probably say those. Summer 2004 because it was the first year I started to travel for shows, and Summer 2006 because it was my first year taping. You could never account for those types of things when ranking this, but to me that is the fun in all of this!

It is great to hear everyone's opinions and their reasons for picking certain years. If there is one thing I can safely say about seeing this band nearly 100 times now it is that there has never been a year without some kind of moment that totally blew me away.


I agree with the entirety of this one, I’m a “millennium era” DMB fan.
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Old 02-23-2018, 09:35 PM   #12
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Thanks, Mario, for some other interesting ways to look at it. I'll probably update the post in a few weeks with some additional rankings.
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Old 02-23-2018, 10:09 PM   #13
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Thanks for doing this, itís awesome. Though I donít actually think itís possible to ďobjectivelyĒ rate a tour. Even stuff like rarity, some people donít like those rare songs. I think thereís just too many subjective factors involved. Number of songs played and rarity arenít really a good indicator imo. Consistency in performance is big as is performance level and energy, etc. which I think in a way is pretty subjective. Percentage of Catalog I like, I think thatís pretty telling in terms of converting everything, though itís going to be skewed toward the early years obviously when the catalog was shorter.

I think fan morale around the boards is also a big indicator as well, are people interested? It seemed that it was pretty high in both Ď03, Ď04 and Ď08. All which should be in the top.
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Old 02-23-2018, 10:19 PM   #14
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Thanks, Mario, for some other interesting ways to look at it. I'll probably update the post in a few weeks with some additional rankings.
No problem, I'm a stat nerd in baseball and hockey, I wish I knew the formulas of it, I would love to help, but I only really understand the application of the results and reading about it.
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Old 02-24-2018, 01:47 AM   #15
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mario, you should join us in the MLB thread.
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Old 02-26-2018, 09:56 AM   #16
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Damn, great writeup, thanks for crunching all those numbers
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Old 02-26-2018, 10:46 PM   #17
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As I've been thinking about this more over the past few days, I've come to the conclusion that we can objectively say that setlists have become more varied as the years have gone on and that it's a myth that they used to vary their setlists more than they do now.

I think the reason it seems otherwise is the fact that their catalog has grown... and also that most of us don't like the newer songs nearly as much as the older ones. And those are totally legitimate points. But regardless, they play songs about every 3 shows nowadays, which is half as often as they did in the early days.
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Old 02-26-2018, 10:49 PM   #18
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As I've been thinking about this more over the past few days, I've come to the conclusion that we can objectively say that setlists have become more varied as the years have gone on and that it's a myth that they used to vary their setlists more than they do now.

I think the reason it seems otherwise is the fact that their catalog has grown. And that's a totally legitimate point. But regardless, they play songs about every 3 shows nowadays, which is half as often as they did in the early days.
I think people also just don't like alot of the newer songs. So even though the sets are more varied, admitting so kinda hurts the whole "ugh DMB sucks" now thing that so many people get great pleasure in saying over, and over, and over, and over, and over again.
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Old 02-26-2018, 11:31 PM   #19
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I think people also just don't like alot of the newer songs. So even though the sets are more varied, admitting so kinda hurts the whole "ugh DMB sucks" now thing that so many people get great pleasure in saying over, and over, and over, and over, and over again.
The bitching annoyed me in 2015. The setlists were objectively diverse as hell and everyone bitched constantly about the tour because of the LLs. Couldn’t really connect with anyone that tour on the boards, felt like I was on a different wavelength. The 2016 tour was easier to discuss, since it was objectively more repetitive. But then again, unpredictability is the most important aspect of going to shows for me the last few years, since I’ve been to so many now.
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Old 02-26-2018, 11:40 PM   #20
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The bitching annoyed me in 2015. The setlists were objectively diverse as hell and everyone bitched constantly about the tour because of the LLs. Couldn’t really connect with anyone that tour on the boards, felt like I was on a different wavelength. The 2016 tour was easier to discuss, since it was objectively more repetitive. But then again, unpredictability is the most important aspect of going to shows for me the last few years, since I’ve been to so many now.
Because the ladies were trotted out, played mostly the same songs, which were and of the worst songs in the catalog, and fucking suck musically and destroy some of the good songs they sing on.
Be Yourself 13
You & Me 11
Save Me 10
Rooftop 10
Everyday 9
Granny 9
Stay (Wasting Time) 8
The Best of What's Around 7
Burning Down the House 7
Hunger for the Great Light 5
Drunken Soldier 4
Sledgehammer 4
Long Black Veil 3
Can't Stop 3
Lying in the Hands of God 3
Down by the River 2
I Did It 2
Smooth Rider 1
Take Me to the River 1
Write a Song 1
Thank You (Falettinme Be Mice Elf Agin) 1

That's right, 1 in every 5 lovely lady songs performed was either be yourself or you and me.

And ife all those songs, how many are actually improved by the presence of the ladies? Stay. LBV. Maybe Save Me. Thats about it.
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