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Old 04-23-2020, 03:23 PM   #2321
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Let me put it this way, in the US, every year, there are 300,000 obesity-related deaths. If we look at just obesity, if these six weeks of immobility and poor diet cause just a 4% uptick in such deaths (+12,000), that alone would dwarf the 10,000 coronavirus deaths.

This disregards everything else I mentioned, including the much higher potential for bigger second and third waves than Sweden. The long term impact of lockdowns on population health will end up being much, much larger than 10,000.

There’s a bigger picture a lot of folks have missed with this. I think too many were looking at what was right in front of them forgetting that how they reacted to it would have a cascading effect on the significantly larger number of things they couldn’t see.
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Without the sort of shutdown that we're seeing now, 80% of people would be infected and 4 million people would die within three months.

With "mitigation" strategies in place (all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing) 2 million people die in the next 3 months.

BUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUT

If we ever relax the suppression levels back to "mitigation" policies, we go right back to 2 million people dead within three months.

This continues until there is a disseminated vaccine, currently 18 months from now.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:23 PM   #2322
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So if you do the math (and only the math), the Swedish model would have resulted in roughly 10,000 more deaths if followed in the US. Is that worth it to you?
roughly 10,000 just doing the math, not at all taking into consideration the facts that I posted about the difference between population density of cities in the country. What... the second most densely populated city in Sweden would come in like the mid 60s rank in the US? That was math also. That 10,000 number would be ridiculously higher in this country. Ridiculously.

Sweden was such a terrible comparison and measuring stick.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:24 PM   #2323
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What do you mean by "net difference in total deaths"? The externalities caused by the lockdowns?
He means more people are going to die because of what weíve done in locking things down than the number that have died from covid.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:25 PM   #2324
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So if you do the math (and only the math), the Swedish model would have resulted in roughly 10,000 more deaths if followed in the US. Is that worth it to you?
Those 10,000 people could isolate themselves. If they go out anyway, then itís on them.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:27 PM   #2325
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roughly 10,000 just doing the math, not at all taking into consideration the facts that I posted about the difference between population density of cities in the country. What... the second most densely populated city in Sweden would come in like the mid 60s rank in the US? That was math also. That 10,000 number would be ridiculously higher in this country. Ridiculously.

Sweden was such a terrible comparison and measuring stick.
Sweden is going to navigate this successfully and people like you are going to do gymnastics trying to justify the global economic depression your ideas doomed the planet with. And even still, itís not responsive to the point that the at-risk could go into isolation.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:27 PM   #2326
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He means more people are going to die because of what weíve done in locking things down than the number that have died from covid.
Yeah. The guy in the video in my sig talks about this. There may be a time stamp for it if you open it on YouTube.
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Sober Thoughts with Mario: A TDC+ Exclusive

Vol. 3

From this past spring:

Quote:
Originally Posted by mario View Post
Without the sort of shutdown that we're seeing now, 80% of people would be infected and 4 million people would die within three months.

With "mitigation" strategies in place (all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing) 2 million people die in the next 3 months.

BUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUT

If we ever relax the suppression levels back to "mitigation" policies, we go right back to 2 million people dead within three months.

This continues until there is a disseminated vaccine, currently 18 months from now.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:28 PM   #2327
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But isn't that just commonly understood? The impact of 9/11 is still being felt nearly 20 years later. One catastrophe usually mushrooms into others. You attempt to minimize the damage from the first shock and still must deal with ripple effects from the initial carnage.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:29 PM   #2328
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Those 10,000 people could isolate themselves. If they go out anyway, then itís on them.
Not to be argumentative, but I assume some percentage of those people would have to go to work and catch it there, right? If you have to work I would t say that is on them. I understand this isnít everyone. I just mean, it everyone is going to be able to isolate themselves. It is going to be what it is going to be in that regard, but Iím just saying...
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:30 PM   #2329
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Sweden is going to navigate this successfully and people like you are going to do gymnastics trying to justify the global economic depression your ideas doomed the planet with. And even still, itís not responsive to the point that the at-risk could go into isolation.
Not all countries are the same. What works for a country like Sweden with 1 major city, and 1 semi-large city, and the rest are villages, does not work for a country like the US with 70 semi-large cities and above.

They are not an example for the world. They are an example for countries like Sweden.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:30 PM   #2330
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Iím not sure if this is to me or Mario. Mario will say no. ďOne more death would have been too many,Ē his bleeding heart will tell you.

I think if we factor likely increases in heart disease, diabetes, obesity (overweight people almost surely didnít get healthier the last six weeks), poor outcomes for patients that canceled elective procedures, suicide, homelessness-related deaths, and the probabilities of much larger second and third waves in the fall...

Yes, if would have absolutely been worth it, because the net difference in total deaths due to the lockdowns is going to be staggering. If CNN tracked every single one the way they have coronavirus deaths, no one would want to ever lock down again.
It was just a general question to those in the thread. There are too many variables to be able to say what actually would have happened, so it is strictly a thought exercise. On the face of it, 10,000 is a shitload of people. But your other points are what I gravitate to. How many peopleís lives are destroyed? There are a hell of a lot of people who will never recover from this. Long term in my opinion the price is greater, just depends on how you want to take your lumps. The vast majority of people we are saving now may not see the next Winter Olympics.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:31 PM   #2331
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Forgetting everything else we’re saying, here’s what’s confuses me the most:

Person A thinks everyone should quarantine indefinitely because they’re (Person A) high-risk.

Person B thinks only Person A should quarantine so that Person B doesn’t also get sicker himself/herself and thus increase their own risks due to diminishing health.

——-

If Person A wants to quarantine anyways, why does Person A care if Person B doesn’t? Person A’s situation doesn’t change at all, they can still do exactly what they want to do.

It’s so odd to me.
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Sober Thoughts with Mario: A TDC+ Exclusive

Vol. 3

From this past spring:

Quote:
Originally Posted by mario View Post
Without the sort of shutdown that we're seeing now, 80% of people would be infected and 4 million people would die within three months.

With "mitigation" strategies in place (all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing) 2 million people die in the next 3 months.

BUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUTBUT

If we ever relax the suppression levels back to "mitigation" policies, we go right back to 2 million people dead within three months.

This continues until there is a disseminated vaccine, currently 18 months from now.

Last edited by Josh.0; 04-23-2020 at 03:50 PM.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:31 PM   #2332
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He means more people are going to die because of what weíve done in locking things down than the number that have died from covid.
Yeah, I thought so.

Still, a rock and a hard place is the solid reality behind the useful science.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:31 PM   #2333
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roughly 10,000 just doing the math, not at all taking into consideration the facts that I posted about the difference between population density of cities in the country. What... the second most densely populated city in Sweden would come in like the mid 60s rank in the US? That was math also. That 10,000 number would be ridiculously higher in this country. Ridiculously.

Sweden was such a terrible comparison and measuring stick.
Thatís what I said, yes.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:31 PM   #2334
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But isn't that just commonly understood? The impact of 9/11 is still being felt nearly 20 years later. One catastrophe usually mushrooms into others. You attempt to minimize the damage from the first shock and still must deal with ripple effects from the initial carnage.
I think he would argue that it hasnít been that bad. That if you take out people who had any other risk factor, then the number of strictly covid related deaths is low (I donít necessarily agree because I donít think covid deaths shouldnít count if any other factor is in play...if I understand his position correctly).
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:33 PM   #2335
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Not to be argumentative, but I assume some percentage of those people would have to go to work and catch it there, right? If you have to work I would t say that is on them. I understand this isn’t everyone. I just mean, it everyone is going to be able to isolate themselves. It is going to be what it is going to be in that regard, but I’m just saying...
The average age of death is like 80... go to work? Sure we can come up with excuses why people can’t isolate themselves. I’ve heard air being recirculated in apartment buildings. This is life and death...if you’re worried about your life you need to figure it out.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:35 PM   #2336
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Not all countries are the same. What works for a country like Sweden with 1 major city, and 1 semi-large city, and the rest are villages, does not work for a country like the US with 70 semi-large cities and above.

They are not an example for the world. They are an example for countries like Sweden.
I disagree but whatever.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:36 PM   #2337
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The average of death is like 80... go to work? Sure we can come up with excuses why people canít isolate themselves. Iíve heard air being recirculated in apartment buildings. This is life and death...if youíre worried about your life you need to figure it out.
Again I am not being argumentative, if your position is that if you are worried then be unemployed and whatever happens happens then ok. And that isnít snark.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:37 PM   #2338
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The numbers might look different if you take out our most densely populated city tho compared to Sweden. Sweden actually has less deaths than the state of Michigan and the same population.
Iím not saying one way or the other is correct, it will just be interesting to see how both methods unfold.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:37 PM   #2339
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Again I am not being argumentative, if your position is that if you are worried then be unemployed and whatever happens happens then ok. And that isn’t snark.
They are unemployed now. The choice would be at risk be unemployed or everybody unemployed (lockdown status quo)
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:38 PM   #2340
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A country that’s on way to a 50% obesity rate. That’s the real issue. Euros take care of themselves.
And all things are equal between Europe and the US.

I agree that people need to make healthier choices and live healthier lifestyles. I work hard it almost every day, but if you are arguing for any number of European social policies that factor in here I’d be surprised.
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