COVID-19/Coronavirus: Away From The World

[typsitch]

Imagine thinking the "tidal wave" is coming now, after 1/3 of the country is already vacinated. Also, sweet congratulatory self-quote, weirdo.

[DMBCLSTJ]

Originally Posted by Dubs New dbl mutation found in California. From what I read it has the L452R mutation and the E484Q. Both can evade immune responses from natural antibodies, the vaccine, and monoclonal antibodies.

But Cali has been locked down right?

[Jack]

Originally Posted by Dubs New dbl mutation found in California. From what I read it has the L452R mutation and the E484Q. Both can evade immune responses from natural antibodies, the vaccine, and monoclonal antibodies.

Can you provide a source for this panic porn post? ANY form of covid CAN evade the vaccine. Pfizer has said their vaccine protects against all variants to this point.

[gweeps]

Since the current dominant variants are so much more contagious, and the subpar masking is even less effective, the only guard against them right now is either vaccination or physical distancing. And folks probably should do both until they're fully dosed. How many people under the age of 16 are in the US or the world in general? What about those between 16-30? How many of them are getting their shots? There will be a 5th wave if we're not careful.

[jeff1818]

Once vaxxed, I'll definitely still play it safe. Act a bit more normally, but in all reality, "normal" won't come back until late fall (IMO) with 70-80% fully vaxxed. I mean, I want to take improv, play volleball and dance in bars, but that's not a reality for now. Praying for fall, early 2022.

Variants throwing monkey wrenches will have to be dealt with as they come.

Regarding 16-30 getting shots, I know a few that take Covid very seriously and will try to get an appt ASAP.

[Josh.0]

There were 36K cases reported yesterday. It’s one of our lowest totals since testing was ramped up.

Why are we talking about huge fourth waves again? Where the fuck is this coming from? 1/3 of the country is vaccinated on some level, 1/4-1/3 was already infected, and the remaining are a mix of people that won’t ever get vaccinated or will get the vaccine ~this month.

What the hell are you guys even talking about anymore?

And why does Dubs only post panic porn only so that when it doesn’t work out he bails on the conversation for three months?

Some of you guys are just wayyy off your rockers.

[Josh.0]

Here’s another thing that dawned on me:

The same people that wanted to lock down for years and prolong the life of the virus are now the same people saying mutations in the virus because of how long it’s been circulating will now become a huge problem for us.

Amazing.

[Josh.0]

Originally Posted by Jack Can you provide a source for this panic porn post? ANY form of covid CAN evade the vaccine. Pfizer has said their vaccine protects against all variants to this point.

Something else the mutation-panicked folks aren’t saying/don’t know:

Mutations don’t always make the virus more difficult. Mutations have roughly equal chances of making a virus more “challenging” OR less deadly/transmissible/concerning.

Mutations can go either way. So unless there are huge outbreaks proving to reinfect mass amounts of vaccinated or previously-infected people, this is just Panic Porn Chapter 9,301 since the pandemic began. Can a mutation evade a vaccine? Maybe. But it hasn’t happened yet in any clinically-significant way and there’s nothing to suggest as of now that one will.

Mario pushed 10% death rates, 18 month hard lockdowns, business closing their doors for good, hospitals running out of beds all over the country, vaccines not going “to work” against COVID-19, opening schools killing kids and teachers, vaccines being dangerous because they were rushed, huge spikes in red states compared to blue states (which didn’t happen), only three months of immunity from infection, mass reinfections (remember when he wouldn’t shut up about reinfections?) etc etc etc and virtually everything he’s “sounded the alarms about” has turned out to be bogus.

Why is ANYONE listening and even engaging with his nonsense anymore? He’s gotten ~90% of his hot takes wrong since the beginning of this thread! He’s a fool that doesn’t know his ass from his elbow when it comes to public health - ignore him! All he’s doing are repeating Ken Tremendous and CNN/NYT talking points in this thread. He puts zero critical thinking into anything he posts.

Just turn him off.

[Dubs]

Originally Posted by Jack Can you provide a source for this panic porn post? ANY form of covid CAN evade the vaccine. Pfizer has said their vaccine protects against all variants to this point.

[Only registered users can see links.]

Those two mutations aren’t covered by the vaccine because they weren’t known at the time of its creation, the mutation didn’t exist yet. They’re amino acid changes and RBD protein changes on the spike protein.

[Josh.0]

From your own article, man:

“This Indian variant contains two mutations in the same virus for the first time, previously seen on separate variants,” Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at UCSF, told the Chronicle on Monday. “Since we know that the domain affected is the part that the virus uses to enter the body, and that the California variant is already potentially more resistant to some vaccine antibodies, it seems to reason that there is a chance that the Indian variant may do that too.” Stanford’s Kim cautions that “it’s not known yet if this variant is more infectious or is resistant to vaccine antibodies.” In fact, despite a surge in cases over recent weeks in India, at the end of March officials there were more concerned about the spread of the U.K. variant than the double mutant, according to AP.

[Jack]

Viruses traditionally mutate to become more infectious and less deadly. That is how they survive.

When ‘they’ say these variants are more ‘deadly,’ they aren’t working with large enough sample sizes. Feel free to freak out all you want, but it does no good. Everything we KNOW to this point tells us the vaccines should still work against them, maybe less than the original strain, but still better than our annual flu shots. If something comes up that actually evades them, they’ll come up with a booster. We’re vaccinating millions a day, and the dude who is actually in charge of managing this pandemic says we should be back to a real semblance of normalcy by ‘late spring, early summer.’ I will choose to believe him.

[gweeps]

[Only registered users can see links.]

Once again, I don't think Osterholm is too far off the mark. But he is using his patented hyperbole trying to make a point.

[Dubs]

I don’t post these things as fear porn or to freak people out. I merely post them to point out this is what happens when you let a virus like this one spread freely with no real quarantine measures.

This virus has defied all the typical viral characteristics. A virus that mutates and spreads as fast as this one is scary AF no matter the current IFR. So far, all mutations have shown slight increases in mortality, like you said, it’s supposed to be the opposite.

[Josh.0]

It’s cool to share stuff but if you’re doing it to keep grinding a political axe against Donald Trump, the election is over man, Biden won.

And the virus is crushing everyone. How did you not notice what happened to Europe? South America? Even Russia’s admitted to getting slammed. It kills with impunity and an indifference to world leaders.

It’s time to let go of the Trump/COVID thing man. It was a nice narrative that won Biden the election as designed, now it’s time to move on.

[Dubs]

Originally Posted by Josh.0 It’s cool to share stuff but if you’re doing it to keep grinding a political axe against Donald Trump, the election is over man, Biden won. And the virus is crushing everyone. How did you not notice what happened to Europe? It’s time to let go of the Trump/COVID thing man. It was a nice narrative that won Biden the election as designed, now it’s time to move on.

Not making this political. Sure, the current administration needs to do a better job at genome identification, tracking variants, tracing cases and isolating the sick. Maybe use hotels as a place to isolate the sick and give them government funding to keep them afloat during all this. Just an idea. Something needs to change besides just vaccination to blunt the spread.

[gweeps]

Dubs, there's nothing wrong with fear. But we don't need to panic. Just be reasonable. Get vaccinated. Keep in mind there are more people out there who still are vulnerable to infection.

This past year has been a hellscape for the world in many ways. It's going to take a while for people to psychologically get back to "normal". But it will happen, with slight modifications. Everything worthwhile in life takes time. And the scars will fade.

[Josh.0]

But country-wide our infection rates are currently among the lowest since last summer? I’m not being sarcastic: am I missing something? I get small regional spikes, but are we seeing a huge surge across, say, 30+ states? Hospitalizations spiking significantly?

It may be happening but I haven’t heard about it. Admittedly I haven’t been tracking this as closely the last two weeks because frankly I’m done with it, but I haven’t heard/seen much indicating mass, country-wide exponential spread?

[Josh.0]

I think what we’re seeing is some states that locked down hard are experiencing some increased spread as people start getting out and breaking lockdown orders because mentally they can’t deal with them anymore. They didn’t get infected before, so they are now. And it’s mostly very young people that easily shake it off.

Just my .02. That’s why places like Michigan are seeing upticks. I think Mass is too. You can only run for so long from Mother Nature.

[Jack]

Originally Posted by Dubs I don’t post these things as fear porn or to freak people out. I merely post them to point out this is what happens when you let a virus like this one spread freely with no real quarantine measures. This virus has defied all the typical viral characteristics. A virus that mutates and spreads as fast as this one is scary AF no matter the current IFR. So far, all mutations have shown slight increases in mortality, like you said, it’s supposed to be the opposite.

I don’t necessarily disagree with you, but it also doesn’t seem to matter. UK had serious lockdowns, also the most well known variant. Their population is about the size of California and Texas. South Africa also locked down and has a population a little less than the UK. I do get annoyed when you say ‘no real quarantine measures’ though. It insults everyone I know. Tell it to all the people who haven’t seen family in a year plus. The kids who can’t go to school. The people who lost the businesses they spent their lives building. The people with mental problems, substance issues from this. You can point to states not taking it as seriously as you’d like, but then you can see their numbers aren’t as bad as some of the biggest lock down states. As mersh was saying yesterday, we aren’t fucking china, full lockdowns will never work here. We did it a year ago, and when it was over the resounding sentiment was ‘never again.’

As to your second point, you’re right. Which is why I think your post last week about the origins of the virus was a question worth asking. We may find out years from now, we probably never will. But while I don’t have a strong opinion, I think it is foolish to take anything off the table, no matter how ridiculous it may seem.

[Dubs]

I need to do a better job at recognizing individual states responses. I think because I’m in Nashville and my parents are in Atlanta, I’ve kind of generalized how I think states are handling it. That’s my bad.