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Old 02-18-2021, 10:35 PM   #7681
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My step brother had covid a month ago. He's doing well. He did not get tested (no one told him he had to). And he won't be tested. Curious to think how many undocumented cases there are out there.
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Old 02-18-2021, 10:37 PM   #7682
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I think April is a little too soon. Only 5% or so have recd the second dose.
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Old 02-19-2021, 01:48 AM   #7683
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Why are you talking about April? We're looking at September at the earliest. And that's highly implausible.
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Old 02-19-2021, 04:42 AM   #7684
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My step brother had covid a month ago. He's doing well. He did not get tested (no one told him he had to). And he won't be tested. Curious to think how many undocumented cases there are out there.
The answer is a LOT.

Some estimates are as high as 10x the amount of reported cases.
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Old 02-19-2021, 07:21 AM   #7685
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Why are you talking about April? We're looking at September at the earliest. And that's highly implausible.
He’s responding to the Wsj link two or three posts back
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Old 02-19-2021, 08:38 AM   #7686
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He’s responding to the Wsj link two or three posts back
Oh, cool, another "natural immunty" hoax.
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Old 02-19-2021, 09:19 AM   #7687
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Please post a credible source that provides evidence that natural immunity from previous coronavirus infections is a hoax.

Just one. Until then, if you’re baselessly claiming it’s a hoax, you’re the actual person spreading hoaxes.

But you’ll refuse to do that and instead pretend you have me blocked despite continuously and passively responding directly to topics I’ve discussing for several months now. That’s easier than engaging directly, which you know often leads to you being proven wrong, which is why you “blocked” me in the first place. It was your way of evading criticism you couldn’t dispute and you didn’t like how often I was proving you wrong...so you ran away.
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Old 02-19-2021, 10:00 AM   #7688
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Pretty sure natural immunity only lasts 3 months which is essentially nothing. All of those infected early 2020 are back to square one. We cannot count those as part of anything. To do so is BS.
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Old 02-19-2021, 10:21 AM   #7689
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Obviously the schools debate has been front and center lately. We are bringing kids back more days a week starting March 1st. Of course the greater priority for people has been school sports, but that is a separate discussion. I am glad I will see kids more often, but I am still stuck in a shitty hybrid model. The number of students returning is currently still low (less than 50% opted for in person) so even though kids are in the classroom I have to teach kids that are online at the same time. This leads to a situation where you have the in person kids still tied to their chrome books while you are tied to your desk where the computer is.

I mention this for a couple of reasons...first I see a lot of discussion about lazy teachers not wanting to work. I have basically had to redo everything I do. It’s like being a brand new teacher all over again. Haven’t worked this hard in years (that isn’t woe is me either). Second, part of the reason remote sucks is no one holds the kids or parents accountable. Obviously it is difficult to know what a 16 year old is doing home alone all day, but there is zero repercussion for doing nothing. They are expected to attend class when I am streaming, but not required to. We can schedule assessments and work, but have to accept everything even if it is 8 weeks late. I am not a hard ass and I am always willing to deal with students on a case by case basis, but I’d say 1/2 of the kids just don’t show up online for whatever the reason may be. Third, we have a lot of parent groups protesting for 5 days a week with full (30 students) classrooms because of the CDC person who said schools are all good now (paraphrasing here). The thing is no one reads past the headline so they don’t see that the idea was schools are low risk with certain protocols in place. It is not shocking that teachers do not trust district offices to implement the protocols to make this work. It is also not shocking that people want to get vaccinated. I live in a state where we can get vaccinated, but that is not the case across the country. Also, the problem is activities outside of school. Most of the positive tests and quarantines we have seen this year come from what people are doing outside of school. For example, we are on break this week. I had countless kids tell me they were headed to Florida and the like for break. In NY you are supposed to quarantine when you return from that trip, people won’t though and they will be right back in school on Monday. Kids will pop positive and then we will all be fully remote for a week or several days again. Some of the same parents who are protesting for full opening are the same ones who let kids have a 100-150 person Halloween party that resulted in us going fully remote for a period of time in the fall.

I want to see kids come back as much as can be done, but I hate that this turning into what it is turning into.
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Old 02-19-2021, 10:22 AM   #7690
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Pretty sure natural immunity only lasts 3 months which is essentially nothing. All of those infected early 2020 are back to square one. We cannot count those as part of anything. To do so is BS.
This is false. Or, I should say, not the whole story. The initial wave of antibodies lasts anywhere from 3-8ish months, different people are showing different levels of *initial* antibodies over time. But the body doesn’t forget the virus, which is where B and T cells come into play.

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Josh.0 Note: Here I go again, posting this for the 1,000th time here, from yet another source, this one “credibly” and “satisfactorily” left-leaning, I hope. Will you guys PLEASE take the five minutes to read this and understand it already?


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“Over time, our antibodies just become better,” Ellebedy said.

After infection is cleared, most of the B cells that rallied to the fore will die off, their life purpose fulfilled. But some cloister themselves in the bone marrow, eking out small quantities of antibodies. Others—the so-called memory contingent—will drift quietly throughout the body like sentinels, scanning the blood and tissues for trace signals that the same virus has returned to trouble them again. Called back into action, these memory B cells can immediately start pumping out antibodies. Or they can reenter training centers in the lymph nodes to continue their education on the virus, honing their defensive skills further.

In epic tales of the immune system, B cells and their antibodies tend to hog the limelight. Antibodies, which are proteins that drift through the blood, are easy to capture and measure; they’re sometimes powerful enough to waylay a virus before it has the chance to break into a cell. But no antibodies would be produced without the help of T cells, which coax B cells into maturing and play vital roles in their training regimen—loyal wingmen at the ready. T cells are also formidable foes in their own right, capable of recognizing virus-infected cells and forcing them to self-destruct.

T cells don’t undergo the same supercharged mutation process that their B-cell colleagues do. They are stuck with the pathogen sensors they’re born with. But the starting repertoire of T cells, and the number of bugs they can recognize, is similarly massive. And like their B-cell counterparts, T cells are capable of remembering past pathogenic encounters—and their discerning gaze is especially difficult to elude.

When viruses undergo a substantial costume change, it can disrupt this iterative process. It’s a big part of why flu vaccines have to be updated every year, Ellebedy said: “We are always trying to catch up with the virus.”

But coronaviruses mutate far more slowly than flu viruses do. And this new one has yet to undergo a makeover that fully neuters the vaccines we’ve developed against it.

B cells and T cells develop so many unique ways of recognizing a given virus that any one mutation, or even a handful, won’t fully thwart them. A change to the equivalent of a virus’s elbow, for example, will have little impact on a T cell’s ability to recognize its earlobe. Memory cells will rapidly seize upon commonalities between the two versions of the virus; in some people, this alone could be enough to nip an infection in the bud.

Certain memory cells—especially T cells—might have enough flexibility to recognize a modified version of their viral target. Experts call this “cross-reactivity,” and it’s a crucial part of the T cell way of life, Laura Su, an immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania, told me. Some scientists have hypothesized that T cells previously marshaled against other coronaviruses, such as those that cause common colds, might even play a small role in quelling this new one.


Even in the complete absence of memory and cross-reactivity, the body still has a huge reserve of backup cells—the multitude of B and T cells that were not triggered by the first go-round with the virus, Su said. The war against variants is not a fight just for veterans: Chances are, rookies are waiting in the lymph nodes to be called to the front lines. Depending on the extent of the virus’s metamorphosis, another infection, perhaps another illness, may be possible. But the body is not left wholly defenseless.
The totality of the above science is very likely why we’re seeing such a huge dip in new infections.
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Old 02-19-2021, 10:32 AM   #7691
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Originally Posted by jeff1818 View Post
Pretty sure natural immunity only lasts 3 months which is essentially nothing. All of those infected early 2020 are back to square one. We cannot count those as part of anything. To do so is BS.
False, and I’m a real life example. My wife had COVID in January. I was in close contact with her the entire time - we didn’t isolate from each other in the house. I never got it. And I’ve never had it since COVID became a thing last March. Which leads me to believe that I had natural immunity to it based on a previous infection of a coronavirus at some point in my life.
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Old 02-19-2021, 10:44 AM   #7692
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Vorony, I’ve seen countless similar situations in families/households I know as well. Here’s more evidence. This is fascinating.

Peeps, PLEASE, I implore you: READ THE FUCKING THING.

Pre-existing immunity almost certainly exists and it may be widespread. The media is ignoring it and focusing on antibody reactions only and ignoring dozens - maybe hundreds - of studies pointing towards a more complex immune response because there’s money to be made in the continued fear of COVID-19 and not the truth regarding how immunity actually works.

WE NEED TO DEVELOP AN EFFECTIVE T-CELL TEST THAT CAN BE RAPIDLY DEPLOYED. I’ve been saying this since last spring, and so have many, many immunologists.

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Rapid Response:
T-cells really are the superstars in fighting COVID-19 - but why are some of us so poor at making them?
Dear Editor,

Thank you to Dr Doshi for raising the profile of T-cells. Incidentally, German researchers found that a staggering 81% of individuals had pre-existing T-cells that cross-react with SARS-CoV-2 epitopes [1]. This fits with modelling in May by Imperial College’s Professor Friston, a world authority in mathematical modelling of complex dynamic biological systems, indicating that around 80% and 50% of the German and UK populations, respectively, are resistant to COVID-19: [Only registered users can see links.] ...

Antibodies can only latch onto and help destroy pathogens outside cells and may also occasionally, paradoxically, enhance a pathogen’s ability to infect cell instead by antibody dependent ”enhancement” or ADE. It is only the T-cell that can cleverly sense and destroy pathogens inside infected cells using “sensors” which detect foreign protein fragments.

In the late 60’s the Lancet described a case of a child with agammaglobulinemia, a condition in which absence of B cells prevent them from producing antibodies, who overcame a measles infection quite normally and did not become re-infected thereafter. We now know that, although this condition can compromise immunity, in that particular case the rest of the immune functions, including T-cells, must have been perfectly up to the job of clearing infection and establishing immune memory without help from antibodies. The importance of T-cells in fighting SARS-CoV-1 and establishing immune memory has also been well documented and discussed in a number of pre-COVID papers from 2017 and earlier [2].

Then, early in April, it was reported that two patients with agammaglobulinemia overcame COVID-19 infections without requiring ventilation [3], prompting the Italian authors to write: “This observation suggests that T‐cell response is probably important for immune protection against the virus, while B‐cell response might be unessential”.

All this should have shifted the focus of efforts towards T-cells at an early stage - the real question is why mainstream media and others continued to focus efforts and narrative on antibodies. Is it because vaccines are good at provoking antibody responses but not so great at generating T-cells? Some of the vaccines presently under trial do elicit some T-cells but it seems that neither the quantity nor variety are hugely impressive.

Does this matter? Apparently so: Research establishments including Yale found that in mild or asymptomatic cases, many T-cells are produced. These were highly varied, responding not just to parts of the Spike, S protein or Receptor Binding Domain but to many other parts of the virus [1, 4-6]. Notably, in these mild cases there were few or no detectable antibodies. Conversely, the severely ill produced few T-cells with less variety but had plenty of antibodies. What is also of interest is that men produced fewer T-cells than women, and unlike women, their T-cell response reduced with age [7].

So why are some people unable to mount a good protective T-cell response? The key to this question might be a 10-year-old Danish study led by Carsten Geisler, head of the Department of International Health, Immunology and Microbiology at the University of Copenhagen [8]. Geisler noted that "When a T cell is exposed to a foreign pathogen, it extends a signalling device or 'antenna' known as a vitamin D receptor, with which it searches for vitamin D,", and if there is an inadequate vitamin D level, "they won't even begin to mobilize." In other words, adequate vitamin D is critically important for the activation of T-cells from their inactive naďve state. The question of whether T-cells might also need a continuing supply of vitamin D to prevent the T-cell exhaustion and apoptosis observed in some serious COVID-19 cases [9] deserves further research.

High levels of vitamin D are also critical for first line immune defences including physical mucosal defences, human antiviral production, modulating cytokines, reducing blood clotting and a whole host of other important immune system functions [10]. The obese, diabetics and people of BAME origin are far more deficient in vitamin D and men have lower levels than women [10].

Another intriguing clue is that Japan has the highest proportion of elderly on the planet but despite lack of lockdowns, little mask wearing and high population densities in cities, it escaped with few COVID deaths. Could this, at least in part, be because of extraordinarily high vitamin D levels of over 30 ng/ml in 95% of the active elderly [11]? By comparison, UK average levels are below 20ng/ml [10]. Vitamin D is made in the skin from the action of UV sunlight, food usually being a poor source, but the Japanese diet includes unusually high levels. Sunny countries near the equator (e.g. Nigeria, Singapore, Sri Lanka) also have very low COVID related deaths.

The results of the first vitamin D intervention double blind RCT for COVID was published on 29 August by researchers in Córdoba, Spain. This very well conducted study produced spectacular outcomes for the vitamin D group (n=50), virtually eliminating the need for ICU (reducing it by 96%) and eliminating deaths (8% in the n=26 control group). Although this was a small trial, the ICU results are so dramatic that they are statistically highly significant [12].

Substantially more vitamin D is required for optimal immune function than for bone health. It seems Dr Fauci is not ignorant of this, having apparently confirmed on TV and by email that he takes 6,000 IU daily! (see Dr John Campbell on YouTube Vitamin D and pandemic science, 16 September 2020). Meanwhile the US’s health body continues to recommend only 600-800 IU and the UK’s, only 400 IU.

It is high time for joined up solid scientific rationale to overthrow mainstream narratives based on an alternative “science” controlled by industry interests/politics. Beda M Stadler, the former Director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern, a biologist and Professor Emeritus, certainly appears to think so (see Ivor Cummins Ep91 Emeritus Professor of Immunology...Reveals Crucial Viral Immunity Reality on YouTube, 28 July 2020).

In the same way that prior infections protect us against future infections by means of cross-reacting T-cells, overcoming COVID-19 naturally offers potential for greater protection against future coronaviruses. Vaccines have their place but so do our amazingly complex, sophisticated, highly effective immune systems which have evolved over millennia to protect us from a world teeming with trillions of pathogens.
Quote:
References
1. Annika Nelde, Tatjana Bilich, Jonas S. Heitmann et al. SARS-CoV-2 T-cell epitopes define heterologous and COVID-19-induced T-cell recognition, 16 June 2020, Research Square [Only registered users can see links.]
2. William J.Liuabc et al. T-cell immunity of SARS-CoV: Implications for vaccine development against MERS-CoV.Antiviral Research. Volume 137, January 2017, Pages 82-92 [Only registered users can see links.]
3. Soresina, A, Moratto, D, Chiarini, M, et al. Two X‐linked agammaglobulinemia patients develop pneumonia as COVID‐19 manifestation but recover. Pediatr Allergy Immunol. 2020; 31: 565– 569. [Only registered users can see links.]
4. Avraham Unterman, et al. Single-Cell Omics Reveals Dyssynchrony of the Innate and Adaptive Immune System in Progressive COVID-19. medRxiv 2020.07.16.20153437; doi: [Only registered users can see links.]
5. Leticia Kuri-Cervantes, et al. Immunologic perturbations in severe COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 infection. bioRxiv 2020.05.18.101717; doi: [Only registered users can see links.]
6. Floriane Gallais, Aurelie Velay, Marie-Josee Wendling, Charlotte Nazon, Marialuisa Partisani, Jean Sibilia, Sophie Candon, Samira Fafi-Kremer. Intrafamilial Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 Induces Cellular Immune Response without Seroconversion. medRxiv 2020.06.21.20132449; doi: [Only registered users can see links.]
7. Takahashi T, Wong P, Ellingson M, et al. Sex differences in immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 that underlie disease outcomes. Preprint. medRxiv. 2020;2020.06.06.20123414. Published 2020 Jun 9. doi:10.1101/2020.06.06.20123414
8. Von Essen MR, Kongsbak M, Schjerling P, Olgaard K, Odum N, Geisler C. Vitamin D controls T cell antigen receptor signaling and activation of human T cells. Nat Immunol. 2010;11(4):344-349. doi:10.1038/ni.1851
9. Diao B, Wang C, Tan Y, et al. Reduction and Functional Exhaustion of T Cells in Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Front Immunol. 2020;11:827. Published 2020 May 1. doi:10.3389/fimmu.2020.00827
10. King, E.. The Role of Vitamin D deficiency in COVID-19 related deaths in BAME, Obese and Other High-risk Categories. 2020, June 17. [Only registered users can see links.]
11. Nakamura K. Vitamin D insufficiency in Japanese populations: from the viewpoint of the prevention of osteoporosis. J Bone Miner Metab. 2006;24(1):1-6. doi:10.1007/s00774-005-0637-0
12. Marta Entrenas Castillo et al. Effect of calcifediol treatment and best available therapy versus best available therapy on intensive care unit admission and mortality among patients hospitalized for COVID-19: A pilot randomized clinical study. The Journal of Steroid Biochemistry and Molecular Biology. Volume 203, October 2020, 105751. [Only registered users can see links.]
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Old 02-19-2021, 10:46 AM   #7693
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I know of 3 households where 1-2 people had COVID and the other people in the house never got sick nor did they test positive.
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Old 02-19-2021, 10:46 AM   #7694
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Here’s one of my personal anecdotes: I got it. My girlfriend’s mother got it. My girlfriend got it. Somehow her 60 year old chain-smoking father in poor health never got it despite being around all of us for weeks leading up to our infections. He refused to stop sleeping in bed with his wife while she had it. He wouldn’t leave her side.

The dude never got it.
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Old 02-19-2021, 10:47 AM   #7695
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I know of 3 households where 1-2 people had COVID and the other people in the house never got sick nor did they test positive.
Yes, this is happening everywhere. And the media is like a fart in the wind when it comes to reporting it.
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Old 02-19-2021, 10:49 AM   #7696
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I’m not looking to get into some big media debate, but I have heard some of these stories in the news. I also don’t watch or pay much attention to cable news networks. I’ve heard about them through NPR and print articles.
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Old 02-19-2021, 10:56 AM   #7697
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Also, vaccine messaging sucks right now. Don’t know if that can be changed, but it is awful. People hear you can’t change anything even after you get it and throw up their hands (to be clear I am not saying everyone should run around doing whatever after they get it, but rather that I understand why people are saying why bother...I disagree vehemently, but understand). I am not looking for the political fight here either because the numbers I’ve seen about who is turning it down/who is less likely to get it doesn’t really fit a narrative.
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Old 02-19-2021, 11:00 AM   #7698
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Here’s one of my personal anecdotes: I got it. My girlfriend’s mother got it. My girlfriend got it. Somehow her 60 year old chain-smoking father in poor health never got it despite being around all of us for weeks leading up to our infections. He refused to stop sleeping in bed with his wife while she had it. He wouldn’t leave her side.

The dude never got it.

I have similar anecdotes, but was he ever tested/possibly asymptomatic?
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Old 02-19-2021, 11:01 AM   #7699
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Here’s the issue with the media. They occasionally will touch on it and then go back to focusing exclusively on antibody responses. It’s beyond stupid. It should be the other way around.

It’s like telling someone “oh, you cut yourself? You may bleed to death once your scab falls off,” completely ignoring the fact that the ensuing scar tissue - what the body does after the scab forms - will completely heal the wound.
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Old 02-19-2021, 11:02 AM   #7700
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I have similar anecdotes, but was he ever tested/possibly asymptomatic?
Zero. Nothing. I have to admit: I was worried AF that he was gonna get it knowing his smoking and health issues. Instead the dude’s fucking kicking around buying smokes and lotto tickets and never so much as had the sniffles a month and a half after we all got it.

He never got tested, but asymptomatic responses may be because of previous T cell immunity.

In many people, T cells don’t mean “no infection,” it means “no symptoms.” You still “have” the virus for a very short period of time but your body crushes it before you ever notice a single thing is wrong. The science is mixed as to whether you can pass it on still, but the point is if we can generate T cell immunity in all people (via infection, vaccines, and pre-existing immunity) COVID-19 becomes a boxer without legs.

This is why endless PCR tests are stupid. We need T cell testing. If there’s a robust presence of T cells that fight COVID, COVID becomes overwhelmingly punchless. T cells kick its ass the minute it makes its way into a human cell.

This is why antibodies aren’t important when it comes to vaccines, for long term protection: T cells are important.

But because the vast majority of people don’t read scientific papers and instead only regurgitate what is selected to be reported to them, few people over the last year have had the chance to understand immunology beyond an “antibody.”
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