COVID-19/Coronavirus: Away From The World

[Tomacco]

Originally Posted by Jack but it’s time to start recognizing the possibility a lot of us have seen our last dmb show.

Yeesh. Dramatic much?

[Jack]

Originally Posted by Tomacco Yeesh. Dramatic much?

I think you’re younger, but a lot of people on this board are in their 40’s with kids. Interest has already waned. If they don’t tour this summer I’d say it’s a coin flip if I ever see dmb again

[celluloid hero]

Originally Posted by Jack I think you’re younger, but a lot of people on this board are in their 40’s with kids. Interest has already waned. If they don’t tour this summer I’d say it’s a coin flip if I ever see dmb again

My group is way more excited and people are planning to travel way more to hang with friends again for the concerts.

[Tomacco]

Originally Posted by Jack I think you’re younger, but a lot of people on this board are in their 40’s with kids. Interest has already waned. If they don’t tour this summer I’d say it’s a coin flip if I ever see dmb again

I see. I thought you meant COVID would kill DMB concerts forever, not that some fans here won't want to go to them.

[typsitch]

Originally Posted by Jack I think you’re younger, but a lot of people on this board are in their 40’s with kids. Interest has already waned. If they don’t tour this summer I’d say it’s a coin flip if I ever see dmb again

No way. Don't underestimate the DMB machine - they have families to support, remember.

Edit, Oh, nevermind

[Jack]

Originally Posted by celluloid hero My group is way more excited and people are planning to travel way more to hang with friends again for the concerts.

In theory I feel the same way. I just no longer have a group to see dmb with. Phish? Absolutely. DMB I either have to go with my wife or there is one buddy I can sometimes convince to go. But, when you have Fauci saying today even with a vaccine we’ll still have to wear masks and social distance, how long will it realistically be until things are ‘back to normal?’ These guys aren’t getting younger. Hopefully Carter is taking care of himself during the downtime.

[jeff1818]

Probably things will be normal in March 2022. Just a guess. I feel like we passed the first phase (Mar 2020 - Sep 2020). Phase 2 (the "hope" phase) ends March 2021 with a real plan for vaccine distribution. We then enter phase 3 (vaccinate and cases really go down). Final phase (if one could call it that) will be Sep 2021 thru Mar 2022, with cases really under control (no longer 40K/day maybe 2000/day. Again, completely arbitrary on my part, but it helps me rationalize timelines.

[Dubs]

My wife had to be tested today. A pharmacist she works with daughter tested positive Monday. Hopefully, only a 12-15 hr turn around time for the results. Trying to stay positive.

[greykitkat36]

Originally Posted by jeff1818 Probably things will be normal in March 2022. Just a guess. I feel like we passed the first phase (Mar 2020 - Sep 2020). Phase 2 (the "hope" phase) ends March 2021 with a real plan for vaccine distribution. We then enter phase 3 (vaccinate and cases really go down). Final phase (if one could call it that) will be Sep 2021 thru Mar 2022, with cases really under control (no longer 40K/day maybe 2000/day. Again, completely arbitrary on my part, but it helps me rationalize timelines.

I think people forget that we don't necessarily need a vaccine to go back to normal, even if we can create or discover a type of medication or treatment where people are pretty much guaranteed not to die, I I think that will go a long way to going back to normal and calming the fear.

Even if we cured this thing tomorrow though, the world has been changed. You're going to see much more people wearing masks, taking precautions, limiting people in the workplace for decades to come I think. It will no longer be wierd to wear a mask or to not shake hands with people. It'll become acceptable social behavior. Even when things are "normal" again, this has created a whole new way of looking at things. Similar to 9/11 but even more so. People are going to take their health more seriously I think, and I think companies are going to realize they've remained super efficient without having to pay for office space and can do more online than they thought.

[Josh.0]

The real tragedy of COVID-19 is prior to COVID-19 people were already becoming more and more ideologically and physically distanced from each other. Social media and online personas have heavily replace in-person interaction and relationship development.

Now, COVID-19 has all but assured that the divide is going to become wider. The stress and uneasiness from lockdowns is what really stoked the flames regarding riots and protests. Combine that with the state of American politics and ongoing physical distancing because of the virus and you have people spending more time in their own heads than ever before.

[Jack]

Originally Posted by Dubs My wife had to be tested today. A pharmacist she works with daughter tested positive Monday. Hopefully, only a 12-15 hr turn around time for the results. Trying to stay positive.

Hoping for the best man. Hopefully they both were wearing masks. You guys are going to be okay.

[mario]

We are, at most optimistic, 1/3 of the way through this pandemic. It's heartening to see some other people appreciating that reality.



Our lives would be infinitely better if more people explained that reality instead of promoting snake oil and lies.

[Josh.0]

WTF are you talking about?

[Wildcats82]

Indiana governor announced that all venues can open at full capacity tomorrow. Mask mandate in place until 10/17. And you must remain seated while eating or drinking.

[Dubs]

Originally Posted by Jack Hoping for the best man. Hopefully they both were wearing masks. You guys are going to be okay.

Yea, they both were. Thanks. She came back negative, even though she’s having symptoms.

[DMBCLSTJ]

Originally Posted by Dubs Yea, they both were. Thanks. She came back negative, even though she’s having symptoms.

Good deal

Got tested a few weeks ago because I lost my voice and had an itchy throat. It can't hurt to get tested (although very uncomfortable is that test). As expected it was just acute laryngitis but that allowed me to feel comfortable visited friends that following weekend.

[Dubs]

Originally Posted by DMBCLSTJ Good deal Got tested a few weeks ago because I lost my voice and had an itchy throat. It can't hurt to get tested (although very uncomfortable is that test). As expected it was just acute laryngitis but that allowed me to feel comfortable visited friends that following weekend.

Thanks.

Yea, peace of mind is huge during this time. Glad you turned out fine.

[jeff1818]

Originally Posted by mario We are, at most optimistic, 1/3 of the way through this pandemic. It's heartening to see some other people appreciating that reality.

I fully expect for us to turn a corner (entering phase III) with the vaccine. Cases must go down. We have a 40K baseline to compare to, as it's been in that range for the past 3+ months. Once we start to see a decline, we are on our road to recovery. I'm hoping vaccine(s) are truly introduced in April (fully FDA approved, strong efficacy %) and we can truly open up (go to shows, museums, start to not fear maskless t-rump supporters) and move past this 4th quarter 2021 / Q1 2022. Seems like a long ways off, but once it turns 2021, we'll be on our way. Patience.

[mario]

A summation of the[Only registered users can see links.] for the future:


[Timeline]

This is the end of the coronavirus pandemic. And this is how it could happen in the United States: By November 2021, most Americans have received two doses of a vaccine that, while not gloriously effective, fights the disease in more cases than not. Meanwhile, Americans continue to wear masks and avoid large gatherings, and the Covid-19 numbers drop steadily after a series of surges earlier in the year. Eventually, as more and more Americans develop immunity through exposure and vaccination, and as treatments become more effective, Covid-19 recedes into the swarm of ordinary illnesses Americans get every winter.

[...]

The future laid out above is the likeliest scenario for how the pandemic could end, based on interviews with 11 top-level experts who think about the future of those microscopic SARS-CoV-2 particles every day.

They agree there’s a lot of fog left in the Covid-19 crystal ball, but most accept several likelihoods: At least one effective vaccine—hopefully several—will be approved in the U.S. by early next year. Producing and distributing a vaccine will take months, with the average American not receiving their dose (or doses) until at least mid- or late 2021. And while widespread inoculation will play a large role in bringing life back to normal, getting the shot will not be your cue to take off your mask and run free into a crowded bar. The end of the pandemic will be an evolution, not a revolution, the vaccine just another powerful tool in that process.









That assessment dramatically contrasts with President Donald Trump’s Panglossian certainty that the U.S. has “rounded the corner” in the pandemic, that a vaccine will be ready by Election Day and that every American can get the shot by April. Most importantly, it contradicts the underlying assumption of Trump’s many proclamations: that life will immediately return to normal after a vaccine is administered.


“I don’t see this pandemic ending as in like, you know, ‘This is the day, the pandemic ended,’” says virologist Angela Rasmussen. “I see this as being a process that will go for a long time, potentially even years.”


Experts’ estimates of the timeline vary, but there seems to be some agreement that the virus could be in decline and under control by the second half of 2021, and that society could see pre-Covid “normal” within two years.
[...]
“Best-case scenario, we get a few vaccines that work by December,” says Landon. It could take longer. Larry Corey, who is in charge of coordinating the clinical trials of U.S. government-funded vaccines, has [Only registered users can see links.] the first U.S. Phase III results won’t be available until February.

[Distribution of a Vaccine]

Many experts, including the director of the CDC, predict that vaccines could be widely available as early as late spring or summer. But Emanuel believes that they’re underestimating just how difficult it will be to manufacture and distribute the doses at scale. In a [Only registered users can see links.] published by the Center for American Progress this summer, he and co-author Topher Spiro pointed out [Only registered users can see links.] , including potential shortages of production capacity, syringes and packaging.
[...]

Many scientists fear that so many people are going to refuse to get both doses of a vaccine out of distrust or fear or just plain forgetfulness that America won’t reach a high level of protection, much less herd immunity.


“Apparently, these shots with Covid … they give you some fevers, some chills, you feel a little flu-like,” says Emanuel. “Well, how many Americans are coming back [to say], ‘Oh, I would like that again. I would like to feel like under the weather for a few days to get this vaccine.’ … What I worry about is we have a lot of people who are only partially immunized with one shot.”

[Life Doesn't Change After You Get Vaccinated]

“What worries me in this is that people would think, ‘Great. I’ve got the vaccine. I’m good. I can engage in high risk activity.’ And that would put us right back to where we were.”


Adds former CDC director Tom Frieden: “I think even with a vaccine, for the indefinite future, handshakes are out and masks are in.”

[Life Never Returns to "Normal"]

Last year, in the United States, the flu sent 740,000 people to the hospital and killed 62,000. “We’re comfortable with that; we let that happen,” says Offit. “We go to sporting events, where it’s very possible we could catch the flu.” Conversely, many people in Japan wear masks during flu season.
Covid-19 will slowly but surely peter out, he says. “And then it’s a matter of what level of disease and death you’re comfortable with.”


Perhaps, faced with this calculation, large portions of American society will decide not to follow the inexorable track back to “normal.” Perhaps masks will become the norm in winter, when coronaviruses spread more readily, and handshakes won’t return.


“I think there’s going to be a fundamental fear,” says Kinch. “My grandparents lived through the Depression. And for the rest of their lives, even when they had money and some degree of financial security, they to a degree acted like they were living through the Depression.”


“And that’s not meant [to be] gloom and doom,” he adds. “The new normal will be fine, and we’ll get through it just fine. But I don’t think we’ll go back to January in my lifetime.”

[jeff1818]

Getting the 2nd dose into people is going to be a bear. But people need to realize the world sucks right now. Wanna move on? Follow the guidelines and take the damn thing. I wonder if the maskless morons will take the vaccine or if they believe God will take care of them or if they think it's a hoax. Also, I like the quote about owning risk. It's true. I go into huge crowds at any time and I could be coughed on and get the flu. But I know that I can take some medicine and recover in a few weeks. I'm not scared, nor do I truly care. It's a risk I'm okay with. With covid, we need more data and more medicine to treat. And what about the asymptomatic people who may have future conditions. We just don't know.

Also we need to get beyond the "no touching someone you don't know". Wash your damn hands.